I think we’re at the phase were people are trying to make wash their hands of culpability. That the bubble was not rammed down by a small group of people and was not entirely illogical when examined by more than 5 seconds of care, so that people can point to this in a little bit and go, “Nobody could see this coming!”
The real tragedy is not just the jobs and the economic destruction that we’re going to see, but the fact that this tech actually has some pretty cool use cases and it’s almost certainly going to get burned as when things like this collapse it just takes everything down with it.
There is always blowback during the collapse that is just as irrational as the bubble that caused it.
The numbers are, as you (and Ed Zitron) point out, bananas, and the financial house of cards will collapse -- but there is enough fin-de-siecle chaos happening right now that anything is possible.
AI seems to be particularly useful in murdering people, so, for example, if there were another globe-wide hot war, it isn't clear to me that Altman et al don't virally weave themselves into the DNA of the state, both in the USA and in its adversaries.
In which case, the "bezzle" continues until the state collapses, whenever that is (depends who wins the war ;D)
The original sin of any modern forecast is proceeding from reason and sensibility. Now is the hour of the batshit.
It's already overdue.
> it isn't clear to me that Altman et al don't virally weave themselves into the DNA of the state, both in the USA and in its adversaries.
In the USA? Maybe. In its adversaries? Definitely no. Thanks to Trump's "Make America Negligible Again" campaign being extremely successful.
Adversaries and enemies alike, no exception, nobody trusts US any more, so everyone is already building their own stuff to get independent ASAP. Tech-bros have already lost their influence outside of the US.
Citation needed, I have not seen any sign of this. I mean, China having humanoid robots running around is a cool demo and none of that is useful.
Here's one, https://www.weaverobotics.com/isaac-0, a $4000 static laundry folding robot. Of course it's only available in California and some unspecified percentage of folding will be completed via teleoperation.
Same company claims they will soon start selling an $8000 mobile maid bot that tidies and folds laundry.
IDK, it looks like it needs lots of work. If it was actually able to pick up my crap and fold my laundry, I'd be tempted, but it would also need to not phone home with camera data, the audio or other content of conversations. I'd also want an easy way to shut it down in an emergency.
When you can replace human sewing machine operators in garment factories, that's when you'll see widespread adoption of robots across the economy. Managing big pieces of fabric is hard.
I think we've still got a long way to go before we get jetsons style robot maids.
> that’s just the start.
Every single absurd AI claim can only speak about the future. We have invested more than the annual GDP of a Nordic country into this stuff in the last few years and have only forward thinking statements to show for it.